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Key events this week: is it just about Yellen?
Solving this week’s calendar is not too complex - it’s about Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole on Friday. However, markets will get few other impulses as we wait for the Chairwomen:
Monday
4pm - USDA report on crops - today’s session is a bit lazy in terms of calendar and the main position refers to soft commodities crops inspections (4pm) and crop quality (9pm) have an impact on grains that were bottoming out recently.
Tuesday
5am - Kuroda holds a speech during a conference - well, with a highly anticipated BoJ meeting next month and USDJPY barely holding 100, this is the one to watch
8-9am - flash PMI from Europe - EMU has been resilient to Brexit so far, the data will update us on this; pay attention to France that’s been pretty soft recently
2:45-3pm - US data - new home sales, flash PMI, Richmond’s Fed - not the key set of the data but with the balloon being pumped up ahead of Yellen everything counts
9:30pm - the API report on US oil inventories
11:45pm - trade balance from New Zealand - the NZD remains strong despite efforts from the RBNZ to weaken it; watch for any disappointments as the NZDUSD stays close to 0.73 resistance
Wednesday
3pm - US data on used home sales - not much to cheer about
3:30pm - Wednesday is pretty much about the DOE report - the latest one was very solid for oil showing decline of both oil and petroleum inventories. However, the picture for oil becomes increasingly bearish with shale producers storming back.
Thursday
8-8:30am data on sentiment and unemployment from Sweden - important data as EURSEK still looks interesting given more tolerance from Riksbank for a stronger currency. Solid data could pave the way for declines.
9am - Ifo index in Germany - icing on the PMI cake
11am - the CBI sales trends in UK - very interesting report indeed. With a strong sales figures for July the CBI report for August will cast more light on the UK consumer as we still wonder to what extent the report for July was an outlier
1.30-3pm - a package of the data from US - PMI services, claims, Kansas City Fed, durable orders - orders data may have an impact on the greenback just a day ahead of Yellen
Friday
It’s Yellen time but we start from ordinary things like:
0:30am - inflation in Japan
9:30am - preliminary data on UK GDP for Q2
1:30pm - preliminary data for US GDP for Q2 - this is a second release where a downward revision from an already weak advance release of 1,2% is expected; obviously weak growth is the key argument for the Fed’s doves so the market will pay an attention
3pm - UoM sentiment index in the US plus inflationary expectations
6pm - Baker Hughes data on rig count
At the moment the timing of Yellen’s speech has not been specified - a complete agenda is expected on Thursday so we will keep you updated. However, brace for a hot Friday’s afternoon
by Angelika Fx Marker Fx
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