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Oil, stocks and the buck under pressure
Despite a lack of any economic releases of note today there has been volatile moves in several markets with the near 100 point drop in the DE30 (-0.74%) around midday the most noteworthy of the lot. Elsewhere the oil price has retreated from its highest weekly close of the year on Friday, with Brent Oil (-2.58%) moving back below the $50 barrel on news that Iraq could be set to increase their exports in the not too distant future. In addition, comments made over the weekend from Fed vice-chair Fischer saw the buck gain early on, before reversing and moving down with the USDJPY (-0.37%) trading on its lows at the European close.
The scale of the move in the DE30 suggests a large stop order just under previous support may have triggered the rapid decline, and whilst the market recovered the majority of the loss shortly after the price at the time of writing at 10492 still marks a substantial daily decline. The UK100 (-0.45%) and US500 (-0.21%) have also endured a soft start to the week with indices around the globe declining.
The GBPUSD (+0.48%) has been one of the main beneficiaries of the depreciation in the US dollar moving up to trade 1.3130 on the European close. Antipodean currencies are also gaining with both the AUDUSD (+0.21%) and NZDUSD (+0.28%) beginning the week brightly.
Looking ahead the main event overnight is a speech from BoJ Governor Kuroda around 05:00 before we have European manufacturing PMIs out tomorrow morning. The French set the ball rolling at 08:00 before the German equivalent half an hour later. The Eurozone wide numbers are released at 09:00. The afternoon session is light in terms of releases with the US flash manufacturing PMI and new homes sales the standouts at 14:45 and 15:00 respectively.
Oil with clear declines (AT, H4)
The price of crude oil is clearly backs up during today's session, continuing the decline started during the Friday session, which is associated with the next increase in active rigs in the United States.Oil retreats from the area 48,50-49,00 per barrel and at this point the daily loss reaches 3.0%. WTI crude oil goes back almost to the point of the last roll of the previous week. The first support zone can be precisely located around the roll, as previous demand zone was located slightly lower at around 46.50 USD per barrel. We indicated our place, which is the upper limit the gaps caused by the abolition of rollover is located 23.6 last wave of growth on oil.
Looking at the options market, which is illustrated by the implied volatility (VIX index) shows that investors do not expect even greater declines in crude. Only a strong increase in this index may be for us a clear signal to the sale of raw material.
by Angelika Fx Marker Fx
